Economic impact of not dredging the Port of Bundaberg for sustainable sediment management

The aim of this report is to model the potential economic impacts of a hypothetical case where maintenance dredging was no longer conducted in the Port of Bundaberg. The Port of Bundaberg is situated 5.6 nautical miles from the mouth of the Burnett River and has two main wharves. The principal commodity handled at the port of Bundaberg is sugar. The port also handles other products including gypsum, silica sand, wood pellets and molasses. The Sir Thomas Hiley wharf is mainly used for bulk sugar while the John T. Fisher wharf is used for the bulk loading of molasses. In the financial year 2018-19, a total of 27 vessels transited through the port, carrying an estimated $180 million of bulk cargo. Bulk sugar is the key commodity and accounted for 63.4% of throughputs in 2018-19. The designed depth of sugar berths is 11 m and it is 9.66 m for the molasses berth. The majority of vessels accessing to the Port of Bundaberg require a draft over 8 metres, including up to 10.6 metres for Handy Size vessels and up to 10.5 metres for the Mini Bulker class vessels. If accessible draft reduces to 8 metres, about 87% of current vessels would not be able to access the port and about 97% of total cargo would not be shipped. If available draft dropped to 3 metres, the port would effectively cease operations. Restrictions in access are modelled to reduce shipping relatively quickly, with most reductions occurring within two years. All wharves would cease to be operational by year 5. There will be very rapid impacts on commodities, particularly bulk sugar and molasses. The results of the analysis show that the economic effects on the regional, state and national economy will be large and rapid. All sectors will suffer a reduction in access within the first two years, as larger vessels are excluded from the harbour. Within five years of no maintenance dredging, all operations at the port would effectively cease. The economic impacts would be substantial, with direct output losses in the regional areas modelled to be $180M after five years, increasing to $315M and $389M respectively when supply chain and consumption impacts are added in. These impacts are predicted to be associated with a loss in value added of $155M, a loss in income of $63M, and a reduction in employment of 894 people. The effect of those impacts will be concentrated in the Wide Bay region. There will be additional negative impacts on the Queensland and Australian economies when the impacts of lower business and consumption expenditure outside of the Wide Bay region are factored in.