Understanding evolutionary process of public participation leveraging agent-based simulation: The case of waste incineration power projects

Public participation, as a vital way for conflict management, has attracted increasing attention. Although previous studies have examined the determinants of public participation, the evolutionary process of the participatory behavior has seldom been investigated. Based on the motivation-opportunity-ability theory, a concept model was constructed to illustrate individual behavior of participation in waste incineration power (WIP) projects. Data collected from a questionnaire survey was used to examine the important factors involved in the concept model that significantly influence public's willingness to participate in WIP projects. Thereafter, an agent-based simulation within a social network based on the opinion propagation dynamics was developed to simulate the change of the agents and several simulation experiments were implemented. It was found that with the dissemination of information and the interaction of opinions, the whole network tends to converge to a few central nodes, and the difference of degree of each node also increases gradually. The increase of interaction threshold and moral incentive significantly enhance average participation intention and the proportion of participants. The findings advocate for promoting information disclosure, strengthening opinion interaction between individuals, and emphasizing the internalization of moral sense into the individual's own sense of obligation. This study could enhance the understanding of evolutionary process of public participation in WIP projects and provide valuable suggestions for the promotion of sustainable development of environmental projects.