Stochastic hydrologic simulation for water availability evaluation in Fucino Plain (Central Italy)

The Fucino plain is a reclaimed farmland in central Italy. A wet winter and dry summer characterize the hydrology of the basin. Inflow into the basin is comprised mainly of streamflow from the Giovenco River and lateral groundwater flow from four hydrogeological units draining into the plain from the northern, eastern and southern borders. The rapid increase of water consumption in the last few years for agriculture, industry and domestic usage, as well as higher evapotranspiration, is stretching the water resources of the basin. A simple stochastic hydrologic simulation of the basin is done in this study in order to assess variability and dependability of water availability, and to provide the regulatory authorities on water resources planning and management a new perspective on the need to undertake a detailed study on water availability and reliability. Random precipitations were simulated over one thousand years and fitted to hydrologic models describing the inflow into the plain from springs, Giovenco River and water excess. Monthly percent exceedance curves have been developed from simulation modelling, which is used to delineate possible water scarcity scenarios in the plain.