CQUniversity
Browse
Author Accepted Manuscript_Risk induced contingency cost modeling for power plant projects.pdf (807.06 kB)

Risk induced contingency cost modeling for power plant projects

Download (807.06 kB)
Version 3 2022-05-25, 04:14
Version 2 2022-05-23, 04:23
Version 1 2022-05-16, 00:28
journal contribution
posted on 2022-05-25, 04:14 authored by Muhammad Saiful Islam, MP Nepal, M Skitmore, R Drogemuller
The current practice of expert judgment-based contingency cost allocation by owners lacks a holistic understanding of project risks, their causal relationships, and impact on project costs. This study presents an integrated fuzzy set theory and fuzzy Bayesian belief network model for a rational, realistic determination of contingency costs for infrastructure projects. The application of the model is demonstrated for real-world power plant projects in Bangladesh. The model has promising results for its ability to establish the amount of contingency costs with a maximum error of 20% between the contingency cost predicted with the model and the actual contingency cost. It has the potential to assist both the owner and contractor to set aside a realistic amount of contingency cost in the preliminary phase of a project. The approach is also equally useful for monitoring and controlling project risks, and dynamically updates the contingency cost amount during project execution.

History

Volume

123

Start Page

1

End Page

18

Number of Pages

18

ISSN

0926-5805

Publisher

Elsevier

Language

en

Peer Reviewed

  • Yes

Open Access

  • No

Acceptance Date

2020-12-10

External Author Affiliations

Queensland University of Technology (QUT); Shahjalal University of Science and Technology (SUST), Bangladesh

Era Eligible

  • Yes

Journal

Automation in Construction

Article Number

103519