Rain induced shallow landslide hazard assessment for ungauged catchments

A physically based distributed slope stability model derived from the integration of hydrologic analysis and slope stability analysis is presented for GIS based modeling on a catchment scale. The catchment is represented by a mesh of squares with vertical columns. The hydrologic model calculates subsurface flow and resulting pore-water pressure during rainfall in each cell for every time step. The slope stability module then calculates the stability of each cell for the changing water pressure scenario. There are very few input data requirements, which makes the model applicable to ungauged catchments, also where the record of the past landslides and associated rainfall are not available. The model was tested in Garjuwa catchment, Nepal where all landslide scars were documented. The model reproduces the observed distribution of landslide locations in a consistent way. Several model runs were conducted, increasing the intensity of rainfall to see corresponding increase in instability. The results show that there is a critical rainfall intensity for the catchment, beyond which increase in rainfall intensity does not increase instability significantly.