Modelling a tourism response to climate change using a four stage problem definition and response framework

Climate change has become a hot topic for research, but the response of national governments has been relatively cool, particularly in their support for effective mitigation measures to combat the problem. A review of the scientific literature (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC]. (2007). Summary for policy makers. In S. Solomon, M. Qin, Z. Manning, M. Chen, K. Marquia, M. Averyt, M. Tignor, & H. Miller (Eds.), Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group 1 to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York: Cambridge University Press) paints a generally grim view of where the Earth is heading for by the end of the century if effective mitigation strategies are not implemented in the next few years. Mitigation measures of the type required to prevent major environmental damage in the future can only be effective if a global political approach based on agreed levels of climate change gas reduction is implemented. For its part the tourism industry is caught in a trap, unable to adopt meaningful mitigation strategies because of reluctance by consumers to bear the cost of changes that will be required but having to meet the cost of climate change mitigation and adaption strategies when they are introduced in the future. This article proposes a four stage problem definition and response framework with associated models that can be used by the industry to plan for and adapt to climate change both prior to and after the introduction of legislation and policies to combat climate change at the national and international levels.