Identifying causes for the decline in international arrivals to China-perspective of sustainable inbound tourism development

Chinese inbound tourism growth peaked in 2012 and in following years, arrivals have exhibited a downward trend. Over the same time Chinese outbound tourism has increased significantly and by 2016 the number of Chinese outbound tourists (52.7 million) was nearly twice that of international arrivals to China (28.1 million) (CTA, 2018). The aim of this paper is to identify the determinants of international tourists visiting China based on destination attributes. For the purposes of this research, Australia was selected as a study site on the grounds that China has been a popular destination for Australian residents. This study examines a range of behavioral factors that may affect intentions to travel to China including: past travel experience to China; perceptions of overseas destination attributes; beliefs in China's ability to satisfy the needs and constraints that appear to prevent Australian residents from traveling to China; and tourists' intentions to visit or revisit. Data collected from Australian residents on aspects of travel to China included perceptions, beliefs, constraints, information sources, and past experience. The research shows that past experience was positively associated with intention to visit or revisit. Five constraint factors were identified. Based on these findings, the study discusses practical implications for management and government officials needed to boost Chinese inbound tourism. © 2019 by the authors.