Housing demand forecasting for the Bowen Basin towns: Lessons for developing countries

The Bowen Basin is predominantly a coal mining and agricultural regionin Queensland, Australia. The recent mining boom has generated a number of housing pressures in the region. Some of the key factors contributing to housing pressure in the region include: housing prices that are increasing at a rate higher than wage increases; a gap in wages between employees in the mining sector and employees in other sectors; a mismatch between housing supply and demand; and,the lack of policy to address this mismatch. An accurate demand forecasting tool can help underpin better policy to deal with such housing problems. The authors have developed a model, ‘Bowen Basin Regional Housing Model’ (BBRH), underpinned by relationships between demographic and dwelling characteristics, can predicts housing needs by dwelling types for a long period. Here, the model has been appliedin Moranbah, a town in the Bowen Basin Region. There is potential for this model to be more widely applied in any local area where there is a single dominating economic sector, including case study applications in developing countries.