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Exploring sustainable scenarios in debt-based social–ecological systems: The case for palm oil production in Indonesia

journal contribution
posted on 03.11.2021, 00:16 by Julen Gonzalez-Redin, J Gareth Polhill, Terence P Dawson, Rosemary Hill, Iain GordonIain Gordon
A debt-based economy requires the accumulation of more and more debt to finance economic growth, while future economic growth is needed to repay the debt, and so the cycle continues. Despite global debt reaching unprecedented levels, little research has been done to understand the impacts of debt dynamics on environmental sustainability. Here, we explore the environmental impacts of the debt-growth cycle in Indonesia, the world’s largest debt-based producer of palm oil. Our empirical Agent-Based Model analyses the future effects (2018–2050) of power (im)balance scenarios between debt-driven economic forces (i.e. banks, firms), and conservation forces, on two ecosystem services (food production, climate regulation) and biodiversity. The model shows the trade-offs and synergies among these indicators for Business As Usual as compared to alternative scenarios. Results show that debt-driven economic forces can partially support environmental conservation, provided the state’s role in protecting the environment is reinforced. Our analysis provides a lesson for developing countries that are highly dependent on debt-based production systems: sustainable development pathways can be achievable in the short and medium terms; however, reaching long-term sustainability requires reduced dependency on external financial powers, as well as further government intervention to protect the environment from the rough edges of the market economy.

History

Volume

49

Issue

9

Start Page

1530

End Page

1548

Number of Pages

19

eISSN

1654-7209

ISSN

0044-7447

Location

Sweden

Publisher

Springer

Language

eng

Peer Reviewed

Yes

Open Access

No

Acceptance Date

29/10/2019

External Author Affiliations

King’s College London; CSIRO; James Hutton Institute, UK

Era Eligible

Yes

Medium

Print-Electronic

Journal

Ambio