Evaluation of risk-related performance in water management for the Ganges delta of Bangladesh

A risk-based evaluation is performed in the meeting of future water demands in the Ganges Delta of Bangladesh (GDB). This evaluation is based on reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability performance indicators, which have been newly defined to capture the time varying characteristics of the Ganges River system. The analysis includes the impacts of climate change on both demands and resources, and the generation of synthetic flows of the Ganges River. The values of the indicators reveal that the expected demand of the GDB up to the year 2050 can be supplied with the proposed Ganges Barrage under the "no change" and "most likely" climatic scenarios, provided that the groundwater remains usable. However, if an additional upstream diversion from the transboundary rivers takes place in India and/or a "possible adverse" change in climate occurs, the consequences may be devastating.