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Bilateral trade through official channel between India and Bangladesh: An analysis with the use of time series forecasting models

journal contribution
posted on 20.04.2018, 00:00 by MM Ali, Anita Medhekar
Statistical Economic and Social Research and. All rights reserved.Bilateral trade between India and Bangladesh will be mutually beneficial to both the countries and improve welfare as per trade theory. This study has tried to forecast impact of trade between two countries considering the time period 1991-2014.The researchers compared Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) after testing the significance of Augmented Dicky fuller model’s intercept of explanatory variables.While using ARIMA model the study found that best-fit estimates were exports to India. However, forecasting indicates that import from India to Bangladesh also had a positive impact over the time period 1991-2014.By engaging in bilateral trade with India, Bangladeshi producers and suppliers ought to be concerned about attaining long term sustainability in their business, by improving quality of the products so that export can be raised in a competitive manner. Market access to India will be beneficial only with having competitive advantage, in bilateral trade. To export products, India should allow duty free access to certain products from Bangladesh in which it has competitive advantage. To maintain Pareto optimality in the bilateral trade, Bangladesh should import products from India at competitive prices. This will help to promote and nurture bilateral trade relations, ensure sustainability of business and mutually benefit both the countries through free trade agreement. © 2016,

History

Volume

37

Issue

3

Start Page

135

End Page

174

Number of Pages

39

ISSN

1308-7800

Publisher

Statistical Economic and Social Research and Training Centre for Islamic Countries, Turkey

Additional Rights

With publisher permission

Peer Reviewed

Yes

Open Access

Yes

External Author Affiliations

Daffodil University, India

Era Eligible

Yes

Journal

Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development

Exports

CQUniversity

Exports