Validation of using Gumbel probability plotting to estimate Gutenberg-Richter seismicity parameters

The Gumbel Type I statistics of extreme events have been successfully used in the past to forecast various natural events such as annual exceedence of design flood level, and hall fall. Some attempts have been made to determine seismicity parameters using the annual maximum magnitude events in historic records. The results from these determinations have invariably been criticized for various reasons, including the perception that the methodology ignores important data, and that the method has no verification basis. This paper address both topics by discussing the principles of the reliably deducing the Gutenberg-Richer seismicity parameters of complete synthetic earthquake calendars, using only the annual maxima<p></p>