Impacts of climate change on solar PV power system: a case study in subtropical Rockhampton, Australia

The performance of solar PV system depends on local climatic conditions. The energy conversion behaviour of PV system will change as a result of the new conditions of solar energy resources caused by climate change. This study aims to investigate the impacts of climate change on the future performance of a PV system with an existing load of 23 kWh/day and a solar array of 6 kW through predicting the future solar irradiation data and developing a simulation model of PV system. The morphing method is employed to predict the future hourly mean global solar irradiation data. Using renewable energy simulation software HOMER, the system’s electricity generation and greenhouse gas emissions are analysed and compared for climatic conditions of Rockhampton, Australia, for different climate scenarios such as, current climate, 2030 Low, 2030 High, 2070 Low and 2070 High. It is found from this study that for the 2070 High scenario, the solar PV generates the most electricity, 9725 kWh/year, and has the highest renewable fraction, 57.3% compared to current climate which generates 9700 kWh/year with renewable fraction of 0.55.