Cost contingency modelling for construction projects: Insight from the literature

A review of cost contingency modelling in construction projects is presented to find the application areas and limitations of the existing models to pinpoint the further research gap. Three broader approaches of contingency modelling are found: 1) a data-intensive contingency prediction model without risk analysis, (2) contingency estimation following a knowledge-based risk assessment, and (3) contingency modelling integrated with risk management strategy. However, the existing models have a basic limitation such as the risks in contingency modelling were assumed to be independent. Ignoring the inter-relationships between the risks leads to inaccuracy in risk assessment, which subsequently leads to inaccuracy in contingency modelling. In response to this issue, an integrated fuzzy Bayesian belief networks model is potential for future research to develop a risk induced contingency model for complex projects.