An expert system to assess the landfall propensity of a tropical cyclone in Australia

Because of the damages a tropical cyclone (TC) can cause to properties, lives and infrastructure, it is important to forecast if a TC formed over the ocean, would make landfall. Currently, Australia uses ECMWF model, which assesses strike probability over a 300 km radius from the current location with a maximum forecasting lead time of 48 hours. This information is quite inadequate for cyclone preparedness and disaster mitigation measures. However, it is possible to use historical records and expertise within the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to narrow down the location of probable hit, and also, to extend the lead time. This has been done in this study integrating ECMWF model results, historical track records of TCs, and in-house knowledge of experts within the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in the framework of an expert system, e2gLite.